Futures – Global trends 2015

February 22, 2009

witchyounground

NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL
GLOBAL TRENDS 2015
A DIALOGUE ABOUT THE FUTURE WITH NON GOVERNMENT EXPERTS

” The Drivers and Trends

Demographics
World population in 2015 will be 7.2 billion, up from 6.1 billion in the year 2000, and in most countries, people will live longer. Ninety-five percent of the increase will be in developing countries, nearly all in rapidly expanding urban areas. Where political systems are brittle, the combination of population growth and urbanization will foster instability. Increasing lifespans will have significantly divergent impacts.

* In the advanced economies—and a growing number of emerging market countries—declining birthrates and aging will combine to increase health care and pension costs while reducing the relative size of the working population, straining the social contract, and leaving significant shortfalls in the size and capacity of the work force.

* In some developing countries, these same trends will combine to expand the size of the working population and reduce the youth bulge—increasing the potential for economic growth and political stability.”

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